> We're in the Microsoft Flight Simulator 1.0 era relative to that. The arguments were the same "You can't make any money selling games, its too hard, no one buys them, the market is illusory." But the reality was that the market was developing, and during development early movers get an advantage but they don't necessarily win or even complete the race.
Indeed, the article's conclusion is flawed: the gold rush is not over. We blindfold ourselves with a scenario where a hypothetical gold rush would make every arriver rich, observe that it is currently not the case, and justify not trying our luck by saying that therefore, it's over and there's no use trying.
As long as there are constant or increasing numbers of people "thinking they're going to make $1b by making an app and getting acquired.", there's — by definition — a rush.
As long as there are constant or increasing numbers of people "thinking they're going to make $1b by making an app and getting acquired.", there's — by definition — a rush.
And rushes, by definition, inevitably end. I'm sure there were gold miners that showed up in the Sierra's and were disheartened by all of the claims everywhere. They, being in the later wave, no doubt cursed their luck at missing out on the 'easy' riches. I can tell you that very few independent miners are wandering the Sierras these days to stake a claim (surprisingly it is not zero but that is a different story).
Indeed, the article's conclusion is flawed: the gold rush is not over. We blindfold ourselves with a scenario where a hypothetical gold rush would make every arriver rich, observe that it is currently not the case, and justify not trying our luck by saying that therefore, it's over and there's no use trying.
As long as there are constant or increasing numbers of people "thinking they're going to make $1b by making an app and getting acquired.", there's — by definition — a rush.