not to mention http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4328660 where the author posted the same article to another site.

my reaction, then and now:

"4 hours: This is probably the only realistic estimation. It is large enough to have some margin for unexpected problems, while the task is still small enough to grasp."

    1. Estimate everything in 4 hour increments
    2. 100% accurate estimates
    3. Pizza party